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Tag Archives: natural gas

Exxon forecasts rise in natural gas for energy supply to 2040

08 Tuesday Mar 2016

Posted by ottawawindconcerns in Renewable energy, Wind power

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Climate Change Convention 2015, coal power, energy supply, Exxon, natural gas, renewables, wind power

EXXON’S VIEW OF GLOBAL ENERGY SUPPLY AND DEMAND TO 2040

By Robert Lyman

EXXON Corporation, one of the world’s largest energy enterprises, recently published its updated projection of energy supply and demand to 2040. The International Energy Agency, the United States Energy Information Administration, and British Petroleum have recently issued similar projections.

Projections of these kinds are interesting for several reasons, among which is the fact that they offer informed judgments about the trends in the world economy and energy sector that one may compare to the political aspirations of governments that the world sharply reduce fossil fuel consumption as a way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. At the recent Conference of the Parties to the Climate Change Convention in 2015 in Paris, several governments committed in principle to the goal of eliminating the use of fossil fuels by 2100 and aiming to do this in the developed (OECD) countries by 2050. In short, several governments have claimed that they will eliminate all use of oil, natural gas, and coal by 2050. Environmentalists seek to do while also prohibiting any growth in the use of nuclear energy, the most reliable source of non-carbon base load electricity generation.

A question, therefore, is how do EXXON’s projections square with the goals articulated at the COP 21 meeting?

Generally, EXXON has accepted that the political push to reduce GHG emissions will have significant impacts in the OECD countries over the period to 2040, especially in terms of altering the sources of electricity generation and requiring fuel economy improvements in light duty vehicles and other energy-using equipment.

The following are the main observations that come from the EXXON report as to the changes that will occur from 2014 to 2040:

  • World population will grow 25% from 7.2 to 9 billion people.
  • Global income will more than double, with developing countries leading the growth.
  • Global energy demand consequently will grow by 25%. China and India together will account for almost half this increase.
  • The world middle class will grow from 2 billion to nearly 5 billion; the new members will want to have the cars, quality residences and appliances enjoyed by the middle class today.
  • By 2040, oil, natural gas and coal will not fade away as hoped by governments. In fact, they will continue to meet about 80 % of global energy demand. Natural gas demand will grow more that any other source.
  • Substantial gains in energy efficiency will see the carbon dioxide intensity of the global economy cut in half by 2040.
  • Global demand for transportation will increase by about 30%. Today there are about 1 billion light-duty vehicles (cars and SUVs) in the world. This number will rise by close to 800 million vehicles by 2040, with about 90% of this growth outside of the OECD.
  • Hybrid vehicles will increase from 2% of new car sales today to 40% by 2040, but all-electric plug-ins are likely to account for less than 10% of new car sales by 2040.
  • Demand for heavy-duty vehicles (i.e., trucks and buses) will increase by 45% by 2040, with about 85% of the growth coming from non-OECD countries.
  • Energy demand from ships, planes and trains will grow by 65%.
  • Over 90% of transportation demand will still be met by oil in 2040.
  • Global demand for electricity is expected to rise by 65% by 2040; 85% of electricity demand growth will comes from developing countries.
  • By 2040, the share of electricity generated by natural gas will rise to 30% and be about even with coal. (In other words, despite claims that coal will be eliminated, it will still be a major source of electricity supply globally.) The amount of electricity generated by coal in India will rise 150% from 2014 to 2040.
  • The amount of electricity from nuclear power will double from 2014 to 2040, with much of this growth coming in China.
  • Wind and solar energy will account for about 10% of electricity generation in 2040, up from 4% in 2014. (This projection is entirely at odds with the predictions of environmental groups that wind and solar energy will replace all other energy sources by 2030.)
  • Carbon dioxide emissions will rise from about 30 billion tonnes per year in 2014 to a peak of about 37 billion tonnes by 2030, before slightly declining thereafter. By 2040, global emissions still will be about 35 billion tonnes, even though emissions in the OECD will drop by 20%.

Robert Lyman is an Ottawa-area economist who specializes in analyzing energy issues.

Are Ontario wind power subsidies keeping Florida bills low? (Yes)

24 Friday Oct 2014

Posted by ottawawindconcerns in Uncategorized

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

electricity bills Ontario, FIT, Florida Power and Light, gas plants, gas-fired power plants, hydro bills, natural gas, NextEra, NextEra Energy Inc, Ontario Power Authority, renewables, subsidies for wind farms, subsidies for wind power, wind power developers Ontario, wind power Ontario

Ontario: keeping Florida’s fossil-fuel power bills low

Florida: plenty of natural gas-fired power. No wind
Florida: plenty of natural gas-fired power. No wind

Florida Power & Light Company (FPL), the largest subsidiary in NextEra Energy Inc’s portfolio with 4.7 million customers, is doing a fantastic job of keeping their rates low.  In fact they have had declining rates for a few years as noted in this post from one of their webpages:  “Bills Are Decreasing – Again!  Since 2009, FPL’s typical 1,000-kWh customer bill has decreased by 7 percent. And in January 2015, FPL expects to decrease the typical residential customer bill by nearly $2 a month.”

While the FPL customers can currently consume 1,000 kWh a month at an all-in price of 10.2 cents/kWh, rates in Ontario have been increasing at about 10% annually.   That 1,000 kWh purchased from Toronto Hydro will set you back $169.00 (65% higher) versus $102.00 from FPL.   The natural and first inclination is to believe that it is probably due to their sources of electricity and perhaps their efficiency levels; while the latter is probably true (they claim 8,900 employees versus the 20,000 plus we have in Ontario) their sources of electricity only include a passing nod at renewables and then only “solar” which seems reasonable in the Sunshine State!  The pie chart showing FPL’s “Fuel mix & purchased power” indicates at least 75% of electricity supplied to their ratepayers is fossil fuel-based.  Solar provides just over a half of 1%!

NextEra power sources: barely a nod to renewables in the U.S.
NextEra power sources: barely a nod to renewables in the U.S.

Look at the parent company, NextEra: it generates electricity from wind turbines where the company can find subsidies.  They rushed to Ontario to snap up at least six Ontario Power Authority (OPA) contracts with a rated capacity of just over 482 MW (megawatts).  A quick calculation of that rated capacity discloses Ontario’s ratepayers will pay a lot of money to NextEra over the next 20 years, which NextEra can use to either pay dividends to their shareholders, or allow some of the revenue used to keep rates low in the Sunshine State for Canadian “Snowbirds.”

The 482 MW of rated capacity should produce power at 29% of capacity, which means they should generate about 1.2 million MWh (megawatt hours).  The equation therefore is as follows:  482 MW @ 29% X 8760 hours in a year X $135 per MWh x 20 years = $3.2 billion.  That means revenue per FPL customer of about $35 per year. If only $2 finds its way to FPL’s customers, it will help to keep the rates down.

Ironically, Ontario’s Snowbirds pay much higher rates at home; no wonder Canadians own more property in Florida than citizens from the next five nationalities combined! Too bad their winter electricity bills will be waiting for them when they get back home.

©Parker Gallant

October 23, 2014

The views expressed are those of the author.

Reposted from Wind Concerns Ontario http://www.windconcernsontario.ca

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